UPDATE: The New York Daily News concurs on the Anglo-philia in Hollywood.
Of course the greatest problem with the Academy Awards is the Academy itself. No one really knows why they select the nominees they do, or actual award-giving trends as it does. Most of the working theories about the Academy’s voting habits hold as dispositive the fact that the average Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences member-voter is 57 years old. The Academy’s Anglo-philia, its seemingly endless appetite for World War II themes, its multiculturalist politics, its penchant for applying a cumulative measure when deciding acting honors, and its still stubborn insistence on valuing emotional impact far above visual design and tech wizardry might all be explained simply as an outgrowth of a Baby Boom youth.
But we don’t really know the Academy’s mind, old or not. They are, however, predictable.
The prevailing expectation is that the The King’s Speech, the film starring Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, and Helena Bonham Carter, will take Awards night by storm. It seems to be catching one of those perfect winds that confers momentum on all of its nominations, which means that it could win awards in even in categories for which it would be plainly wrong and unfair.
I think this is a shame because while The King’s Speech is definitely one of 2010’s best, on the whole I do not think there was a single “landmark” film in the bunch, or even one that was head-and-shoulders above the rest.
I will state for the record that my three favorite 2010 releases were: Luca Guadagnino’s I Am Love, the re-release of Fritz Lang’s Metropolis, and (for the phenomenal acting) Blue Valentine. My most indelible movie moment not in one of the aforementioned was probably Hit Girl rescuing Big Daddy and Kick-Ass in Kick-Ass.
As is the case for many people, the list of Oscar nominees doesn’t actually correspond to who I think should have been nominated, making picking Oscar winners an even greater exercise in cognitive dissonance. Predictions!
Best Picture: The King’s Speech (should win: The Social Network)
Best Actor: Colin Firth (should win: Colin Firth)
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush (should win: Christian Bale)
Best Actress: Natalie Portman (should win: Natalie Portman)
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (should win: Melissa Leo)
Best Director: Tom Hooper (should win: David Fincher)
